See, I told you so.
Remember that post I had a few months ago, Bush will self destruct in 12 months or less? Guess what, I was right. My thoughts on Harriet Miers were also echoed on the national level. So, with this excellent track record after only half a year of blogging, what do I think about Judge Alito’s nomination?
First of all, let’s clear up a myth. No one is really going to vote for a judge because the judge is skilled, intelligent, and erudite. If you hear someone say otherwise, know that they are not really honest with themselves. The fact is, the Supreme Court IS an equal branch of government-equally powerful, equally important, and equally politicized. The Supreme Court is like an extreme senate-longer terms so that ‘the whims of the people’ wouldn’t affect them. A Supreme Court will interpret laws based on whether liberals or conservatives have a majority, just like the Congress makes legislation based on whether liberals or conservatives have a majority. Don’t kid yourself into thinking anything else.
Also note that, though Conservative Republicans have finally made the takeover they’ve wanted for decades of Congress and the White house, they’ve been actively making Supreme Court nominees for decades, too. No one should disagree about this, the Conservatives really, really want the Supreme Court. They’ve been putting all their best legal minds into the running, probably to the detriment of their Congressional representation. Their best and brightest are judges more than anything else. And Alito is just that kind of judge-extremely right-wing, extremely good, and extremely supported by an incredible amount of effort, will, and money on the part of Conservatives. Miers was a surprise, so Conservatives didn’t man the guns to defend her, but Alito is exactly the Judge they’ve been trying to get nominated.
If you read my post about Bush self-destructing, you remember my fourth reason was his neglect of his Religious Right base. Alito is exactly the kind of energy Bush needs to get his RR base energized. The defining question for the Religious Right is-abortion, or pro-life? And in the words of Alito’s mother “Well of course he opposes abortion.”
In fact, I think that if anything can re-energize Bush after his lame duck slump, it’s a big fight that draws the line between liberals and coservatives. I don’t know that this will give Bush new life, but if anything ever does, it’s this.
So here’s my prediction: If the Democrats win and Alito gets shot down, then a Democrat will be elected President in 2008. If not, the Republican fallout from Bush might be salvagable.
