A Virginia Liberal

I know I haven’t been posting much lately, but graduation was yesterday. I was fortunate enough to give the speech for my friend Andrew. At any rate, I should be posting more often now because I’ll have more time to spend on things like blogging. Without further ado, here is the paper which earned my credit with honors in my writing class. Since it was scholarly, it took a different tack than my regular posts. And set aside some time, this post’s a mammoth.

Chances Strong for Democratic Overtake of Virginia Senate

Both in Virginia and nationally, the Democrats have chafed under a decades-long reign of Republican majority in both the house and the senate. While the national Republican party loses support among the American public, Virginia Republicans are also doubting a party that only a few years ago they supported overwhelmingly. Here in Virginia, a shrinking Republican majority, two Democratic governors in a row, and a hugely increased political budget are giving the Democrats the best hope in decades of retaking the senate majority.
As primaries and elections draw near, the upcoming elections in the Virginia General Assembly will give senate Republicans the toughest fight they’ve had in decades. At the beginning of 2006, the Republicans enjoyed a 23-17 majority over the Democrats in the Senate, as well as a Republican lieutenant governor for tiebreaker votes. However, the past 18 months have not been easy for the senate Republicans. First, Senator Bill Mims, a Republican, was nominated to the newly elected Democratic Governor Kaine’s cabinet. A special election was held to determine Mims’ successor, and Senator Herring, a Democrat, was elected to replace him. This made the Republican majority a thin 22-18 margin.
Senator Herring arrived in the wake of Republican Senator Russel Potts’ run for governor in 2005. Potts has been one of several Republicans who sometimes split with his party on close votes. Particularly since his failed gubernatorial run, Potts has not enjoyed Republican support on many of his stances, such as his selection for Virginia’s temporary state song. Potts was also dismissive of the Republican Party in several floor debates in the 2006 session, decrying “…a Republican party that was against things, and not for them.” It is likely that Potts will run next year on the independent platform. If he wins–and considering his long stay in the Senate that seems likely– the Republican majority will be narrowed to a single seat.
In addition, Fairfax county supports five Senators but only two of them are Democrats. Fairfax also is not a particularly conservative county, and none of the three Republicans are especially well-known or powerful. Fairfax is also experiencing a string of police officers being shot. This may punctuate the Democrat’s stronger stand on gun control laws. It would not be surprising if the Democrats get both of the seats they need in the Senate by unseating two Fairfax county senators.
Inside sources in the Senate also hint that state Senator Nick Rerras (R ), without whom the words ‘under God’ perhaps would not still be in Virginia’s pledge of allegiance, is considering running for the United States House of Representatives. The seat Senator Rerras may run for was previously held by Representative Shrock (R-VA). Shrock decided not to run for re-election after a recording of his call to a gay phone sex hotline surfaced on the internet. Should Senator Rerras, or any other Republican senator in the General Assembly, be elected to replace Representative Shrock, a special election would be held to replace that senator. While the Democrats are not guaranteed a win in a special election, the enormous challenge always present in toppling an incumbent would be removed, thus making a Democratic win much more likely.
The Republican party has had difficulty in keeping their party’s vote together on many party-line issues, such as the anti-smoking legislation proposed by Senator Bell (R ). The Republicans have had difficulty, even with their significant majority in both Houses of the General Assembly, getting many of their bills through. This problem has plagued them so badly that the General Assembly has had to go into an extended session.
The Virginia General Assembly elections will reflect the national Democratic and Republican parties in general and more specifically, the public opinion reflected in the upcoming 2006 midterm elections. The Republicans have enjoyed a large majority in both houses of Congress in addition to the Presidency for the past 5 years. However, the Bush Presidency has been subjected to several scandals.
Many of the President’s problems stem from the revealing of undercover agent Valerie Plame by Time Magazine reporters. Both Bush’s Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and Vice President Cheney’s chief of staff, I. Lewis Libby have been indicted for separate crimes. Mr. Libby resigned from his position following his indictment, and Mr. Rove recently lessened his duties, leaving the day to day management to Joel D. Kaplan. These problems, which were first covered by the press in 2004 and 2005, followed the disputed 2000 Presidential election. That election was decided by a Supreme Court case after several thousand ballots were contested for various reasons. The difference between the two candidates was only a few thousand votes, thus leading some liberals in the media to refer to Bush during his first term as ‘the thief in chief’. These scandals, though they certainly did not help the President, did not hurt his approval ratings nearly as much as the Iraq War and Hurricane Katrina.
Though initially supported by a majority in the United States, the Iraq war and the questionable verity of the evidence that led to it has constantly hemorrhaged the President’s approval ratings. Argument still continues as to where the fault lies, but it is clear now that claims the President and several staff members made to gain support for an invasion of Iraq, such as the existence of Weapons of Mass Destruction, were false.
Further hurting the President’s strongest issue, national security, was the poor government response to hurricane Katrina. Though the government has spent hundreds of billions towards recovery post-Katrina, the first several days during and after Katrina showed the inadequate level of government readiness for such a disaster. While the President’s efforts had largely been directed at preventing a terrorist attack, the high body count of at least 1,604 people and harsh criticism directed at the government from several figures severely hurt the President’s approval on National Security.
While President Bush has struggled with the Iraq war and hurricane Katrina, Republicans in Congress have suffered the resignation of House Majority Whip Tom Delay amid scandal and litigation. And if for no other reason than that there are more Republicans in Washington currently, the Republican image has suffered far more from the downfall of lobbyist Jack Abramoff. While several Congressional Republicans have been implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandal, the Republican party is at least as worried about low approval ratings for the Republican President. Nationally, the Democrats are hoping for a Senate majority because of the Republican parties’ problems both in Congress and in the White House itself.
With the Republican re-election effort running into several large problems, as described above, the Democratic party is rallying and gearing up for some of the toughest and most expensive Senate races ever.
The Democrats gained a sorely appreciated victory in January following Republican L. Preston Bryant’s appointment to Governor Kaine’s cabinet. Lynchburg, normally a conservative district, elected Democrat Shannon Valentine to the Virginia House of Delegates. This Democratic victory came on the heels of their second Governor running to Congress, and has emboldened the Democrats.
Promising elections are not enough for some Democrats, however. The Democrats will seize upon widespread disapproval of President Bush and a doubled campaign fund to bring them the Senate in 2007. Though the Democrats are doubling their campaign budgets for 2007, they may not even need to. As national and state approval ratings drop for Republican President George W. Bush, many former Republican voters are turning to the Democrat’s side out of frustration with the President they voted for.
“Angry voters turn out and vote their anger,” said Glen Bolger, a pollster for several Republican congressional candidates. This means, simply, that with 47% of the country strongly disapproving of President Bush’s performance, it is entirely possible that voters alienated by President Bush will cost the Republicans their majority in Virginia’s Senate.
In case voters dissatisfied with the President do not translate their feelings to Virginia’s General Assembly, Democrats are preparing to spend unprecedented quantities of money on their political campaigns. Dick Cranwell, chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party, announced to a happily surprised audience on April 3rd that the budget for General Assembly races in 2007 would be doubled.
Many factors are converging on the Republicans’ Senate majority in Virginia. First, two Democratic Governors running are getting national attention and are ready to campaign for their party’s Senate hopefuls. The Democrats are only three away from a majority, and with two possible losses for the Republicans, a majority looks even easier for the Democrats. And in case national scandal in the Republican party does not hurt Republicans enough, the Democrats are prepared to pay twice as much as they have previously to re-take a house they haven’t held in decades. Though none of these factors individually would spell disaster for a party that has held a majority in both houses of the General Assembly for decades, together they may just be a combination that will spell victory for the Democrats come November 2007.